The polling is really astonishing in recent days. Support for Prop. 8 has gone from a fifteen point deficit to a five point lead in a month. Supporters have vastly outraised and outspent the No side.
All I've seen is the ad Mocking SF Mayor Newsome and the California Supreme Court. It's really quite effective. And
the Mormons have really organized; this could even reduce Obama's
margin in the state.
But I think there are also some other considerations:
1. Yes, the progressive community got really complacent by all those summer polls showing the No on 8 leading by double digits.
We underestimated the right wing's ability to mobilize, even in such a blue state such as California. The yes side vastly outraised the No side (by about $6-10 million), and out organized
the No side also. I haven't seen a single No ad or even a single
No on 8 bumper sticker. Maybe I'm looking through the lens of Republican northern San Diego County (where I live) but all I've seen are Yes on 8 stickers.
2. This election will have (I think) an increased turnout of Latino voters. They are more likely to be opposed to gay marriage.
3. Are a majority of Californians really willing to accept gay marriage? Usually on propositions, it's the yes side that tends to lose support as the election draws closer. But with this gay marriage amendment, no is yes and yes is no. So by voting no, a voter is voting yes to gay marriage.
Since support for No on 8 has dropped about 9%, the pessimist in me says 8 passes 53-47. I hope the tide can be turned, but it's going to be hard.
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