To attack or not to attack
Attack: McCain is not loved because he is not seen by conservatives as the more conservative choice. If Obama attacks he either attacks from the left and gives McCain conservative backing or attacks on personal issues and risks the issue being McCain Vs Obama who would you rather have a beer with. McCain and the GOP have a long long long track record of winning the have a beer with us campaign.
Not Attack: If he doesn't attack McCain can set the agenda as he is presently doing. It will become an is he ready election.
Hillary or not to Hillary
Hillary: Gains some support with the base but loses some independents. May give GOP support to McCain as some really hate Hillary who may vote for Obama or sit it out.
Not Hillary: The rest of this campaign will be dominated by Puma in the same way Nader did in 2000 even though we all knew Nader wasn't going to win anything. Elements of the base will not vote and Obama will totally totally lose the ability to control message as elements within his own party will be cheering for him to lose.
Winning or not Winning?
Winning: Many Obama supporters think his 3% lead is a landslide in the making. If Obama feeds this view he risks every poll percent increase for McCain making McCain the comeback king.
Not Winning: Humility on Obama's behalf will in itself be a story of him losing and unless it comes with a sudden drop in the polls truly allowing him to become the underdog (like Hillary was able to do at the end of the primary but a month or two too late) it will just be a slow sinking of a candidate who was supposed to win.
Democrat or not Democrat
Democrat: Obama has a large non democrat following. If he is partisan he risks losing the independents between the GOP and the democratic party.
Not Democratic: If Obama doesn't act partisan he risks making his inability to publicly declare his party message becoming the story. If that happens he risks losing the traditional base and he becomes even more dependent on his youth movement which has cooled considerably.
In many ways Obama needs help and his expectations level doesn't show it. He has lost the momentum and on several issues McCain has publicly told him to do something and then he did it (Iraq visit and drilling) thats not generally what leadership is.
Obama is in a world of hurt more than most realize and only has a 3% lead to fall back on.
Here is my read on states that matter
Senario 1
States I think Obama wins
Michigan
States I think McCain wins
Florida
States that will decide the election
Pa
Oh
Indiana
Virginia
New Hampshire
Colorado
McCain needs to win
Ohio
PA
Indiana
Virgina
and New Hampshire or Colorado.
Senario 2
If Romney were to bring Michigan
McCain wins
Michigan
Florida
McCain needs
Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
Indiana
From my reading I take the following to be true in my thought process
Leaning states that are traditionally GOP are hard to take
Indiana
Virginia
Possibly colorado
Leaning states that are traditionally democratic should be easier
Pa
Toss ups that we can gain major traction in
Michigan
Ohio
In closing Obama is in a very strong position and if he could lock up
Ohio
Pa
There aren't any winning solutions for McCain that are likely.
If Obama can lock up
Michigan in addition there are literally no likey senarios where McCain wins short of massive massive upsets in New Jersey or California or some such currently unlikely situations.
So short of a november surprise that causes Obama to lose Ohio, Pa or Michigan or some form of McCain miracle that causes him to win California or New Jersey, Obama will become president in Jan.
Because he is in such a commanding lead if he can lock down Ohio, Michigan, Pa his choice of VP will be tailored to these states and these states alone with the possible addition of Florida.
In addition because he is in such a commanding position barring surprises I predict that he will act to avoid surprises and choose Clinton as his VP, because she plays well in Ohio, Pa and not too poorly in Michigan as well as bringing Florida into play.
A lesser calculation will be that without unity with Clinton loyalists he will not face a majority in the house and senate and after his honeymoon may find himself unable to exert political power after his shine has worn off. In a 6 month horizon this is a non issue, in a 48 month horizon this is a very large issue. Bill Clinton was unable to get his issues made law in his first 2 years with a democratic house and senate and once Obama makes his first mistake in office he may find himself in the same boat unless true unity is achieved. I believe Obama is already looking ahead to the 2010 elections and the 2012 elections and as such needs unity more than a power play.
Barring some form of Scandal he has won the election but now what?
OK I borrowed this idea from someone else and can't honestly remember who. May have been the radical center guys from their book.
Basically it goes like this.
America needs engineering.
America thinks being a basketball star is cool largely because of the $$$.
American's play much much much more basketball than they practice physics, math or other forms of engineering and manufacture.
Solution:
Have a K-12 state wide science fair which each age group graded against peers and the total prizes for the state wide contest to be 1 Million dollars parents can help but student does the presentation and must be able to explain the project. Cost to run the contest an additional 1 million dollars. So 104 million nation wide add PR/DC to states.
Have a state wide College and university level contest with the engineers from MIT, Harvard, Cal Tech, etc, etc,etc. This would be a massive bragging rights and like the solar races far more would be spent on this than the prize money would pay back. Prizes 1 million. Cost to administer 1 million. total national 104 million.
Have a open contest with everyone everyone able to enter. even the K-12 and university students. Have a list of government objectives and the best solution wins the prize money. Prizes 1 million cost to run 1 milion. Total national 104 million.
Then have a nation wide contest that is televised among the state wide winners. Prize money 10 Million for K-12. 25 million for college and University and 150 million for open contest. Cost to run 3 milllion. Half of prize money is reserved for building the project and taking it to market.
For half a billion a year we could make nearly every student in the nation along with all the backyard Thomas Edison types focused on fixing America's problems...
I have noticed there exist two factions. For clarity I am in the Puma faction some would say the sore losers faction. But what interests me is that there seems to be an equally divisive and equally populated sore winners faction.
And neither faction seems ready to put down the weapons and make peace. History would seem to dictate that the winners are the ones who are supposed to be gracious to the losers but I guess its not totally clear who really won.
Sure Obama won the primary.
But then Ford beat Reagan the first time he ran.
I site as evidence that the sore winners inability to let go is evidence that Hillary and not Obama won the soul of the democratic party this cycle.
Prove me wrong Team Obama. Be gracious. Let bygones be bygones. Drop the puma talk. Focus on the General election. Try it.
After all you guys won right? You are winning the GE right? Surely you can smile about that?
When I see Obama diary after Obama diary attacking the ~20% of the party who won't support you I start to wonder is that how Fords supporters felt in 1976?
Are you feeling that we drank your milkshake?
I am interested how honestly some of you will vote in the poll...
OK as we get closer and closer it is becoming clear that Obama needs the Clinton demographic to win.
But how does Obama gracefully remove the your a racist card used against the Clintons? How do the Clintons remove the you don't know what you are doing card they played against Obama?
The key is sincerity. The key is unity.
To attack or not to attack
Attack: McCain is not loved because he is not seen by conservatives as the more conservative choice. If Obama attacks he either attacks from the left and gives McCain conservative backing or attacks on personal issues and risks the issue being McCain Vs Obama who would you rather have a beer with. McCain and the GOP have a long long long track record of winning the have a beer with us campaign.
Not Attack: If he doesn't attack McCain can set the agenda as he is presently doing. It will become an is he ready election.
Hillary or not to Hillary
Hillary: Gains some support with the base but loses some independents. May give GOP support to McCain as some really hate Hillary who may vote for Obama or sit it out.
Not Hillary: The rest of this campaign will be dominated by Puma in the same way Nader did in 2000 even though we all knew Nader wasn't going to win anything. Elements of the base will not vote and Obama will totally totally lose the ability to control message as elements within his own party will be cheering for him to lose.
Winning or not Winning?
Winning: Many Obama supporters think his 3% lead is a landslide in the making. If Obama feeds this view he risks every poll percent increase for McCain making McCain the comeback king.
Not Winning: Humility on Obama's behalf will in itself be a story of him losing and unless it comes with a sudden drop in the polls truly allowing him to become the underdog (like Hillary was able to do at the end of the primary but a month or two too late) it will just be a slow sinking of a candidate who was supposed to win.
Democrat or not Democrat
Democrat: Obama has a large non democrat following. If he is partisan he risks losing the independents between the GOP and the democratic party.
Not Democratic: If Obama doesn't act partisan he risks making his inability to publicly declare his party message becoming the story. If that happens he risks losing the traditional base and he becomes even more dependent on his youth movement which has cooled considerably.
In many ways Obama needs help and his expectations level doesn't show it. He has lost the momentum and on several issues McCain has publicly told him to do something and then he did it (Iraq visit and drilling) thats not generally what leadership is.
Obama is in a world of hurt more than most realize and only has a 3% lead to fall back on.
As we all wait to see who Obama will pick for VP I thought it would be good to talk about something different.
So here are my thoughts on solar power.
· SD: New Poll Shows Tim Johnson Romping (lowkell)
· Iowa commission takes one small step against CAFOs (desmoinesdem)
· LA-06: Cazayoux's Gittin' It Done! (DailyKingFish)
· Secrets of the American Future Fund (chase martyn)
· Happy Birthday Jerome! (Jonathan Singer)
· Oilmen For Scott Garrett (NJ-5) (Aaron Banks)
· Youth Delegates at DNC Outnumber RNC 15 - 1 (Mike Connery)
· LA-02: James Carter's First Ad (DailyKingFish)
· Clean Coal's Goodie Bag for Dem. Delegates (lowkell)
· Liveblogging Obama Town Hall (fbihop)
· McCain's Goons Throw Birthday Cake In Trash (fbihop)
· IA-04: Would-be independent candidate fails to qualify for ballot (desmoinesdem)
